Dragon Capital has released its macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2027
Dragon Capital has released its macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2027. The baseline scenario calls for continued active hostilities, modest economic growth, and support for the economy through significant amounts of external financing.
Olena Bilan, Director of the Analytics Department and Chief Economist at Dragon Capital: “Our baseline macroeconomic scenario is based on the assumption that active hostilities will continue in 2026–2027, including attacks on critical infrastructure, thereby dampening economic growth. However, high levels of external support will sustain the economy and strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities, particularly through the expansion of domestic defense industry production. A prolonged war in the Middle East will negatively impact Ukraine’s economy due to increased inflationary pressure and rising imports, though the overall impact will be limited. In an alternative scenario of a lasting ceasefire, economic growth rates will be relatively subdued due to supply-side constraints, primarily regarding the labor force.
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