Businesses Downgraded Their Assessments of Economic Activity Due to Attacks on Logistics — NBU

In August 2026, Ukrainian businesses downgraded their assessments of their economic performance. The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) fell to 48.3 points compared to 50.1 in July and 49.0 in August 2025. Thus, the index once again fell below the neutral level of 50 points.

Among the main factors weighing on business sentiment were the widespread destruction of production facilities, warehouses, and logistics infrastructure resulting from Russian attacks, the blockade of seaports, high fuel prices, and a shortage of skilled workers. At the same time, economic activity was supported by steady consumer demand, international financing, government spending on infrastructure reconstruction, and a more stable situation in the energy sector.

Construction remained the only sector with positive readings. The sectoral index stood at 50.7 points, down from 54.2 in July. Companies continue to expect an increase in construction volumes and new orders thanks to budget funding for road and infrastructure reconstruction, domestic demand, and seasonal factors.

The most subdued assessments came from manufacturing: the index fell from 50.7 to 47.3 points. Companies expect a decline in production and new orders, particularly export orders. In retail, the index fell to 47.5 points, compared to 50.8 in July. Companies forecast a decline in sales, purchases, and inventory levels, as well as a further narrowing of profit margins.

In contrast, companies in the service sector slightly improved their assessments: the sectoral index rose from 48.8 to 49.5 points. Companies maintained positive expectations regarding new orders and improved their forecasts for the volume of services provided.

Most companies expect further increases in purchase prices, the cost of raw materials, and the cost of their own products. The situation in the labor market also remains challenging: only construction companies forecast an increase in the number of employees, while other sectors expect staff reductions, most notably in manufacturing.

The NBU survey was conducted from August 4 to 21, 2026. It included 586 companies from the manufacturing, service, trade, and construction sectors.

Source: NBU

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